Method & interpretation
I treated Seiko’s Japanese “縦” measurement as the relevant lug-to-lug / tip-to-tip dimension, because it is the vertical case length. Anything over 39.0mm was excluded from the strict list even if the case diameter is 39mm or less.
Important: many watch brands publish case width but not lug-to-lug. I did not promote those into the strict list unless the vertical/lug-to-lug number was available from a source.
Why the list is so Seiko-heavy
Under 39mm lug-to-lug plus sapphire is unusually restrictive. Citizen, Casio, Orient, Kuoe and Knot have plenty of small or Japan-interesting watches, but most either exceed 39mm tip-to-tip, do not publish lug-to-lug, use mineral/Hardlex, or exceed the price cap.
The Seiko Dolce 8J41 models are the standout: JDM-flavored, very thin, sapphire, high-accuracy quartz, and comfortably under budget.